NS4 Final Exam Study Guide

Spring 2002

The final examination is comprehensive, covering all the material presented in class, in the student presentations, and in the assigned readings in Hines and in Weird Things. Logic and fallacies comes from Chapters 1-5 in Moore (with corrections as made in class), as well as the handout from Dr. Hall on Baloney Detection.

The first part of the Final is based on our discussion of Causality, with a complicated example from the Real World. As announced in class, you may read in advance the article on which these questions will be based. Look for "By the Numbers," in Scientific American, October 2000. It is available on-line at http://www.sciam.com/2000/1000issue/1000numbers.html. It is not necessary that you have read this article in advance, as sufficient information will be available on the exam to answer the questions. You might save a little time, is all.

Be familiar with the lists of fallacies that have been presented throughout the course; most of them are summarized on Dr. Hall's Baloney Detection Kit. For Causality, review the material presented in class on experimental design and hypothesis testing, including disconfirming the Null Hypothesis using statistical methods like Chi-Squared. Review the roll of chance and probability in predicting coincidence and runs of good or bad luck. Also review the meaning of causality in complex systems, such as global weather and climate.

Look at what we said regarding Burden of Proof.

The rest of the exam includes many situations in which you must use the tools of critical thinking to make good decisions. Review the previous study guides for lists of the topics covered.

Review the basic definitions of deductive and inductive logic, the elements of an argument, confirming and disconfirming hypotheses, and the meaning of science vs. pseudoscience and the paranormal. Check the meaning of specific terms used in the course, including, but not limited to, analogy, simile, metaphor, and allegory. Review the various fallacies of Inductive Generalization. Look over how to handle Arguments by Analogy.

Be familiar with the ways that the practitioners of pseudoscience and the paranormal fool the public, and even trained scientists, from time to time. Be familiar with how and why holders of fringe ideas maintain their stances, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Look at how claims for healing are made, and how these claims can be properly tested.

We covered a bit of science in the course also, to help us understand things like Astrology, UFO's, Ancient Astronauts, and the Bermuda triangle. Review what was said about astronomy, lights in the sky, and the scale of the universe, among other things.

There will be questions dealing with the material from all of the student presentations, so review your evaluation sheets. There are still a few unclaimed sheets in the box outside of my office.

Review the basic material presented on Creationism from the assigned readings, from handouts, from student presentations and from lecture.

We had to make several corrections to Dr. Moore's treatment of hypothesis testing. Review the correct ways to confirm and disconfirm hypotheses as presented in class.

Check out what we discussed involving making predictions, both as a part of hypothesis testing and in making decisions about the future.

The Final exam is Thursday, May 23, 2002, from 1100 to 1300. There are 40 questions. Bring your 882 Scantron forms.